Last year, the ice on the Mackenzie River outside of Inuvik had already started moving two days before publication of this newspaper, on May 16.

This year seems to be bucking the recent trend of early breakups, though, and a scientist who has been following the situation for the past 10 years is predicting a May 24-28 breakup.

鈥�We鈥檝e seen some funny things and if it wasn鈥檛 for this year, I would definitely say the trend is for earlier breakup and more quiet, less jamming,鈥� said Dustin Whalen, physical scientist with Natural Resources Canada.

He鈥檚 also one of the organizers of the Mackenzie-Beaufort Ice Break-Up Newsletter, which began more than 10 years ago and has expanded to a lengthy mailing list and now a Facebook page. Researchers and community members use it to post updates on the river鈥檚 status outside their community.

The last few years, the ice has not been as thick and air temperature has been higher, so the ice has tended to melt in place and not form up as many jams, but this year is looking more similar to historical trends.

鈥�All of a sudden we have a spike in this downward trend over the last few years,鈥� said Whalen.

鈥�What we鈥檙e learning is the breakup is still a little bit unpredictable from year to year, but generally we suspect that things are becoming earlier and less dramatic, or less prone to jamming and flooding in some of these communities.鈥�

The timing and severity of breakup, including the amount of ice jams and the high water level, is very important to the work being done under the climate change program, said Whalen.

鈥淲e want to understand how climate change is affecting the natural environment,鈥� he said. 鈥淥bviously air temperatures are increasing, so that has a dramatic effect on snow melt, on river levels and the ice breakup. To map that trend over the last 10 years now is a really valuable dataset.鈥�

It鈥檚 also important to be able to know when is best to do research in the area. Whalen pointed to Kugmallit Bay, a subsistence hunting site for beluga, as one space to keep an eye on.

鈥淭o know when the breakup is happening is really important not only for us to know when we can go and do the research there without interrupting the patterns of beluga鈥� but also it helps us understand what the processes of the ice movement in the bay are and how that may affect this critical habitat for beluga,鈥� he said.

Horseshoe Bend, near Aklavik, is a typical spot that ice jams up as well. Through this research, Whalen and his associates hope to gain a better understanding of breakup in the region and be able to better predict the impacts.

Whalen encourages people to take part in the breakup newsletter, either by emailing him at dustin.whalen@canada.ca or joining the Facebook group Mackenzie 鈥� Beaufort Break-Up.